Planetary Boundaries
This refers to the "global environmental boundaries" that must not be exceeded in order for humanity to survive on Earth. It is said that as long as we stay within these limits, humanity can develop and future generations can survive. This concept was proposed in 2009 by Johan Rockström, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and others.
「プラネタリー・バウンダリー」は9つの項目について、現在の状況と限界値を表しています。項目は(1)気候変動(2)大気エアロゾルの負荷(3)成層圏オゾンの破壊(4)海洋酸性化(5)淡水利用(6)土地利用変化(7)生物圏の一体性 (8)窒素・リンの生物地球化学的循環(9)新規化学物質です。
Of these, limits have been exceeded in four areas: (1) climate change, (6) land use change, (7) biosphere integrity (rate of extinction of organisms), and (8) the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus. Furthermore, two areas, (4) biodiversity loss and (7) the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, have already exceeded the "zone of uncertainty" where there is a high risk of irreversible changes.
The current status of the four items that exceed the limit is as follows:
(1) Climate Change:Atmospheric CO2 concentration and radiative forcing*1, which represents the strength of various anthropogenic and natural factors that cause climate change (350 ppm CO2 and 1 Wm-2)*2 The limit is set at approximately 2 ppm in 2022.*3, radiative forcing was 2019 (2.72-1.96) Wm in 3.48.-2If the limit is exceeded, the Arctic Ocean will experience rapid retreat of summer sea ice, rising sea levels, and bleaching and death of coral reefs.*1.
(6) Changes in land use:Forests, which once covered much of the earth's surface, are being cut down on a large scale in tropical, temperate and northern regions, resulting in a decline in their area. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), between 2010 and 2020, the world saw an average annual decline of 470 million hectares of forest land. The main reason for this is thought to be the conversion of forests into agricultural land.*5.
(7) Loss of biodiversity:Since the birth of life on Earth, there have been five mass extinctions of living organisms, and the present is said to be the "sixth mass extinction era."*6The recent extinctions are occurring at a rapid pace, and human production and consumption activities are thought to be the main cause. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, more than 42,100 species are at risk of extinction.*7.
(8) Biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus:It is believed that the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles exceeding their limits are due to chemical fertilizers used in agriculture. Chemical fertilizers flow into lakes and the sea through rivers, and when the sea becomes overly nutritious, a massive bloom of plankton occurs, causing red tides. This results in a lack of oxygen in the water, which reduces the number of fish and has a negative impact on the fishing industry.

Planetary Boundaries Framework (Azote for Stockholm Resilience Centre, based on analysis in Persson et al. 2022 and Steffen et al. 2015)
Although the fishing industry has a smaller negative impact on planetary boundaries than agricultural production, there are issues that must be considered in order to achieve a portfolio of sustainable food supplies in the future. Wild fisheries, particularly in deep-sea fishing, consume a lot of energy from operating vessels and equipment, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, in the aquaculture industry, which is expected to meet future demand for seafood, the majority of its environmental impact comes from energy consumption for feed production. However, farmed fish are known to have a smaller impact on the environment than livestock, and are attracting attention as a game changer that will enable a sustainable food supply in the future.*8.
Unlike the SDGs, which are political agreements, planetary boundaries are a concept proposed by scientists, but they clearly and comprehensively show the relationship between the scientific limits of the Earth and human activities, and are useful for concretely understanding the SDGs. Not only goals related to the global environment, but all human production activities must be contained within planetary boundaries.
*1 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I Report Summary and Frequently Asked Questions (translated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, 4) p.1
*2 Johan Rockström et al. (2009). Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32
*3 Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (NOAA web page)
*4 Climate Change 2021 The Physical Science Basis (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021) p.28
*5 https://www.rinya.maff.go.jp/j/kaigai/
*6 https://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/h30/html/hj18010101.html
*7 https://www.iucnredlist.org/
*8 https://seabos.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Brief2-Seafood-for-human-and-planetary-health_v2.pdf
<References>
https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
https://seabos.org/dialogues/stockholm/
https://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/h30/html/hj18010101.html
https://social-innovation.hitachi/ja-jp/article/planetary-boundaries/
https://cger.nies.go.jp/cgernews/202012/360002.html
https://energy-shift.com/news/9ea4e31e-a141-49cc-823d-f06d4d878adf
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